Demonstration in minsk on 30. August. Image: homoatrox / CC BY-SA-3.0
Four weeks after the prasidal elections in weibussland, the protest movement goes on against allegedly folded elections. But the movement stagnates. A mass strike movement is not there and a clear political program is missing
On the 30th. August pulled a three-kilometer demonstration train through minsk and demanded the jerkiness of prassident aleksander lukashenko. There are also rallies of women demonstrating all in woman and with flowers in hand. Even students went to the strain. The police step partly very brutally.
The strike movement that started three weeks ago, ebb. In general, only a few hundred workers participate in the strikes, with workforce of several thousand people. Lukashenko had arranged, striked companies to shape and only to set workers who do not strike.
It seems lukashenko sits with its mixture of hard repression and sitting out on the longest lever. And the protest movement lacks a political and social program with which it convinces the working class of it that it is necessary to continue to fight. The opposition has nothing to offer in the demand for the back of lukashenko and fair elections. In addition, the opposition is split, which concerns the ratio to russia.
Protest movement remains peaceful
That the demonstrators remain peaceful is a clear difference to the maidan in kiev, where at 1. December 2013 the kiev city administration of masked nationalists was forcibly occupied.
But the protests in weibussland are undoubtedly the color revolutions in the countries of the former soviet union similar. It is clearly watching that the protests are perfectly organized and there is no lack of funds for rough actions. Two states – poland and lithuania – depending on the west – as a godfather of the protest movement. Lithuania, latvia and estonia diverted travel covers for 30 weibrussian officials.
Russian foreign minister: "200 ukrainian nationalists in weibrussia"
The demonstrators in minsk and other bads do not make institutions as in ukraine, building building and build tent camps. But the russian aufemister sergei lavrov fears that ukrainian nationalists through the situation "provocation" escalate. On 2. September explained lavrov at a press conference in moscow, where the weibussian aufemister wladimir makej appeared, you know that there are already 200 ukrainian countries in weibrussia. These nationalists were trained on urungsplatzen in the west ukrainian region of volhynia and in the eastern ukrainian region dnjepropetrovsk. It is members of the paramilitarian organizations of national corpus, right sector, C14 and "trineck stepan bandera". Provisions for his statement did not submit the minister.
But there are evidence that the ukrainian nationalists support the weibussian opposition. The well-known ukrainian legal radicals andrej bilezki, the 2016 the paramilitarian organization of national corpus and 2014 the asov battalion basically explains in the middle of august on his telegram channel, you will help the weibussian brutern. With pathetic words, bilezki reminded that weibrussian nationalists in 2013/14 supported maidan in kiev. Many "bold webrussen" had also baptized with him in east ukraine against the russians. "That’s why we’re in blame, ukrainians, opposed to you (webrussen)", explained the ASOW-GRANDER. From the weibrussian opposition driver swetlana tichanowskaya stop bilezki indes nothing. If she comes to power, weibussland will "no less in the russian pliers come as under lukashenko".
Also the chairman of the right-wing ukrainian party swoboda, oleh tjagnibok, the weibussian protest movement is not radical enough. He explained, only with one "national attitude" and "good organization" connetting protest in weibussland in a revolution as in ukraine.
Putin is ready for help for lukashenko
The russian prasident vladimir putin explained on 27. August, russia will send a special unit to weibussland when minsk asks for this purpose. The unit will be in the context of the "organization of the contract for collective security" (ODKB) posted. The militar federal government of eurasian states also belong to russia and other countries also weibrussland. The russian prasident explained, the special unit is used only if it comes in weibussland to fill buildings, branden and other violence.
The coordination council of the protest movement explained the use of foreign troops in weibrussland for "not permitted". "We see no reason for the amption that the situation in weibrussia also control", it is in an explanation. In weibussland there was "fine-peaceful actions".
The polish influence in formerly polish territory
Weibussland is unlike ukraine a relatively homogeneous state. 83 percent of the inhabitants are after a survey of 2009 webrussen, eight percent russians and three percent poland. The homogenity results in particular by the language. Of eight million webrussen, 5.5 million at home speak russian, as in 2009 at an official survey .
But in the fields in the west of weibussland, which in 1939 belonged to poland, the weibussian statehood could be tended. The events in the city of grodno show. The city with their 380.000 inhabitants lies in the northeast of weibussland on the border with lithuania and poland and hedged from 1919 to 1939 to poland. The half of the inhabitants are catholics.
In grodno, the weibrussian opposition achieved until 19. August enormous achievements. They organized demonstrations with up to 40.000 participants. The archbishop of the russian orthodox church criticized the behavior of the locational police against the demonstrators as "aggression" and "malice". The head of the police of grodno apologized especially. "I shame for the procedure of some police officers. But we had no choice." the large operation at the place, the dungemittelwerk grodno-asot, strike.
The city administration made tremendous constituents to the demonstrators. She clarified to ground a consultation council together with the opposition. Two places in the city center of grodno were provided to the opposition for rallies.
All these constituents were added after prasident lukashenko on 19. August visited the city of grodno and had dropped the governor andrzej poczobut. His successor became the former weibussian minister of health, vladimir karanika. Lukashenko explained: "we have taken grodno under control." in the city are already "worn polish flags" has been. At a rally with lukashenko, several thousand people participated.
Lukashenko warns of invasion of poland and lithuania
At the end of august, lukashenko claimed, poland wanted to occupy the region grodno militarically, which is located in the northwest of weibrussland, so he must have "hold the half of the army in operational readiness". The liberal russian nesavisimaya gaseta wrote, with the explanation of the threatening polish invasion of attempts to distract the attention of the protests in the country.
The political scientist vadim truchachev also says the russian council for international politics, the claim that poland wanted to involve western areas of weibrussland, be wrong. "Poland can play the role of the protector of the persecuted games and in this way, at least in part of the taxation of weibrussland, the polish solidarity and then the polish identity consolidate." the strengthening of the polish identity does not serve the goal of annexing the western area of weibrusslands. Warsaw needed "an obedient and better a puppet regime in minsk to give poland to the form of a regional power and thus increase the weight of poland in the european union".
Lukashenko had immediately recognized the risk of unstability in the west of the country. On 22. In militaruniform, he attended a troop chair in the grodno area, where he explained, in weibrussland drohe a color revolution with foreign support.
The weibrussian prasident ordered militar manovers. In the grodno area, there have been two military amubilities since the weibrussian prassidal elections. From 17. Until the 20th. August was not far from the new weibussian nuclear power plant a militarization with air demares missiles. And on 31. August was a fourth militar manover in the grodno area, where the "stop and destroy foreign spahtrupps and armed units of the opponent" took. In the exercise, troops, tanks and helicopters were used.
Like representatives of the general staff by weibussland and russia, for this year, is still the weibrussian-russian-serbian manob "slavic brotherhood 2020" planned.
Catholic church on the side of the protesters
Ten percent of the inhabitants of weibussland are catholics. The catholic church, which stood on the side of the protest movement, tries to discipline lukashenko. On 31. August was denied the catholic archbishop tadeusz kondrusiewicz, who was relieved to a working visit to poland, without justifying the entry to weibussland. Kondrusiewicz is weibussian state burger.
The weibussian prasident explained, condrusiewicz have "received a specific order in poland". He has "not just a state burger". The archbishop explained, his church does not mix in politics, but have the right "to judge the events from the moral point of view". His church is drrewing the "international isolation". More frequently "hore man", that in weibussland "A burger war threatens".
Financial assistance from the EU
That poland, which uses the unstability of weibrussland to expand its own influence, is not concealed by warsaw. The polish minister prosident mateusz morawiecki has announced, another eleven million euros for support "the weibussian media and civil society" to provide. The european commission has another three million euros "for the victims of repression" and "to support civil society" approved in weibussland. . From poland since 2007, the broadcaster financed by the polish government sends "belsat", who supports the weibrussian opposition. Another important medium of opposition is the youtube channel nexta, which is operated by a weibrussian blogger of poland.
With the beginning of the protest movement in weibussland, poland has taken mails to facilitate webrussen – especially adolescents – the entry to poland. So the award of visa and the "map of poland" relieved. With the "map of poland" working is facilitated in poland.
Russia scary fears of NATO
Any color revolution supported by the west, which is to reduce the influence of russia in its neighborhood, has its own country-specific character. It is unlikely that the color revolution in weibrussland, if she stays peaceful, leading to a break with moscow. On the one hand, the opposition in the question of relations with russia is not consuming, on the other hand, russia will put all means in motion, so it does not come to a break with weibussland.
Everything that makes another advice of NATO to russia’s western border possible to prevent moscow to prevent.