Land consolidation?
The party landscape after the bundestag elections
Speculations are also allowed in politics, and so now is the opportunity to participate in election betting. Charming is most likely, if one does not believe the trends from sunday polls. But the suspense is short-lived, on the late evening of the 22nd. The percentages are fixed. It may be more interesting to speculate in the long term about a possible change in the german party landscape in the aftermath of this federal election.
This kind of speculation cannot be applied to the question of the future fate of the party "pirates" and the "alternative for germany" limited. The parties already established in the bundestag have by no means a guarantee that the fields they now use will remain theirs, apart from minor shifts. Party-political consolidation is conceivable, but so too are lasting changes in the ownership structure of the.
If the SPD is condemned to remain in the opposition, it will think about how it can return to the party "people’s party" can be. Then it would be obvious for them to aim at a capture of the left party, at least its east german version, a considerable piece of land could be won there. However, this is not without political costs, and such incorporations can develop their own dynamics.
If a grand coalition is formed, the problem and this possible solution will probably be postponed for a few years, perhaps until mid-term in the legislative period. No one would expect the SPD to regain its former strength by governing together with the CDU/CSU. If the SPD gets into federal government with the grunens, which is not very likely, for example through the silent help of deputies from the left party, it will also get into trouble in other ways. Little of their pre-election social policy promises have been implemented, with new cruelties to the "subclasses" the SPD is likely to suffer a further loss of confidence in the classic social democratic terrain.
The left-wing party, if it does not become too friendly with a ruling SPD, could gain money, possibly into the role of a "better social democracy" grow into. The need for such a party will not disappear completely, even if below the middle classes the confidence in parliamentary politics and the voter turnout will drop even further.
Bleak prospects for the union
And the grunen? Their hope to become "new people’s party" to rise can be forgotten, realistically it never was. In the long term, this party will probably try to adjust to the function of a smaller partner in coalitions; a coalition with the CDU/CSU is no longer out of the question, but such a thing still needs time to prepare at the federal level. Even if the greens are now in a position to govern with the SPD, this does not preclude them from switching to the CDU/CSU in the future. They are a liberal "corrective party", similar to the FDP, which "oko" will continue to lose market relevance in party politics. The distance between the green party and the FDP is due to the respective core clientele; employees in the better salary brackets of the civil service have different material interests than commercial middle-class people, the at times much-talked-about "post-materialism" was a phantom.
Even if it does not appear so at present: in the medium term, the CDU/CSU is likely to run into serious problems, regardless of whether it leads the federal government again or is replaced by the SPD. In its appendices, this party still has the characteristics of a people’s party. This could prove to be explosive if it turns out that the federal republic of germany does not have the "economic miracle land" remains in europe. The conflating illusion of a "classless" politics then curses itself. The "alternative for germany" however, even under such circumstances, the CDU/CSU will not be able to take over much of the territory; it is committed to the same illusion, only with different propagandistic statements about euro policy. And with resentment against immigration. In order to initiate such a reorganization of the party-political landscape, the afd had to (as far as the "young freedom" hoped for) clearly present as new rights. Some of its protagonists and demanders to shrink back, it could "market-damaging" work, in the right market.
Again to the CDU/CSU: the support it had from birth in certain confessional milieus is fading away, as these milieus themselves. Choosing a party out of tradition is no longer common among the younger generation, insofar as they have any inclination for such activities.
The "conservative" ideological legacy is spent. The CSU has its female-blue speciality – but the CDU after merkel, it can transform into a tough interest party, for the protection of vested interests for self-employed, tradesmen and skilled workers even in times of crisis? Or is she tempted to try right-wing populism?
And the pirates? You fall outside the scope of such speculation. It doesn’t have to be their downfall if they miss the 5 percent. They have a theme that can still be developed and will not lose its relevance.
So what will become of the party landscape in the federal republic of germany?? One cannot speculate that the parties will simply vanish into thin air, even if parliamentarism has had its impressive time. It would be wise to take a sabbatical year, according to biblical tradition, during which the party-political field would not be cultivated at all. And after that, a new line-up and a new application of those who want to become active here. But this is not possible, it would be too risky for those currently employed in the party landscape. And above all for those who rely on their services – although they themselves are not located in this terrain, there are higher spheres in our society.
