After the election is before the election
Now the rough poker begins
The man had posed for the camera in his T-shirt with the inscription "this is what winners look like". But when he came then wunschgemab into the picture, he was probably already rather after crying in the mood. Many christian democrats believed so strongly in angela merkel’s victory that they were horrified when the real results came in. The union parties got the worst election result of the conservatives in decades and lost even from the already bad result of 3 years ago again ca. 3.5% and are at 35. The SPD was one percent down, so it lost ca. 4.4% and yet chancellor schroder was able to be celebrated as the winner on election night at the SPD headquarters in berlin.
"Clear government mandate for the union"
Actually, only FDP leader westerwelle had any reason to do so. His party has been successful with ca. 10% of the actual winner. For this best FDP result since 1961 had not been predicted by the demoscopists. At times, the liberals were even close to the 5% hurdle in the polls. In contrast, the election results of the second winner, the left party, were expected according to the polls. Nevertheless, the party had every reason to celebrate, because with ca. 8.5%, it has sovereignly exceeded the self-imposed mark of 8%, which had always been ied as an election target in the party headquarters. The party strategists did well not to take the dream results after the renaming of the party at face value. At that time even two digit survey results were prognosticated for the left party.
On election night, it’s not just the bare numbers that decide winners and losers. Otherwise schroder would have had to look like a loser too. Because not only did he lose more than the CDU/CSU, but the SPD has also taken the role as the strongest party, if you see CDU/CSU as one party – and can not continue the current government constellation alone with the grunen. But schroder is not measured by this, but is seen as the man who brought the SPD within a few weeks from 21% to now approx. 34%, putting it on a par with the CDU/CSU. For a short time after merkel’s nomination, the CDU/CSU had even been predicted an absolute majority. But then the party had settled at approx. 43% in the polls. Therefore, the result can only be interpreted as a defeat.
Angela merkel may still so bravely claim the role of chancellor. Who does not think inevitably of the election night 3 years ago, when stoiber had already declared himself the winner?. Behind the scenes, the debate over merkel’s succession to the CDU presidency is likely to begin soon. Because even if she should succeed as chancellor of a rough coalition, she is in a weak position with an SPD on the same eye level. There is no longer any question of government through and of the reform turnaround that merkel had so often invoked in the election campaign. That is why merkel sounded so defensive on election night when she said that the election campaign was now over and that the time for cooperation between all parties beyond the left party had begun.
The SPD, on the other hand, sounded a completely different note. There, the election campaign seems to be far from over. The majority did not want merkel, and schroder would remain chancellor, they said confidently. There were even threats that negotiations on a grand coalition would not even begin if the CDU/CSU were to stick to its goal of becoming chancellor.
Now some things certainly sound different the day after. But in fact, beyond the psychological mood of victory, the SPD is in a better situation. Schroder is the incumbent chancellor and can only be ousted by merkel if she achieves a majority against him. There are clearly fewer options for her than for schroder, who has only ruled out an alliance with the left party. In doing so, he has done her a great favor. Its more than 50 members, including many newcomers to parliament and non-partisans, must first form a workable team. Nothing would suit them less than an internal debate about cooperation or toleration of an SPD-green government. This chalice has thus passed them by for the time being.
"I feel confirmed to ensure for our country that there will be a stable government under my leadership for the next four years."
Schroder has not ruled out the possibility of a traffic light coalition. However, after the elections, westerwelle claimed a strong opposition role for himself to the rough applause of his supporters and ruled out a traffic light. It will be exciting to see when the first FDP officials from the second row position themselves for such a coalition.
In fact, the hurdles are not insurmountable in terms of content. Schroder emphasized that he wants to continue the reforms, the FDP only wants to accelerate them forcefully. On domestic ies, they could even find common ground with the greens. They suffered only slight losses of just under 8%. Their party leftist strobele even defended his direct mandate in berlin again. Nevertheless, the grunen play a conspicuously minor role on election night, because many expect them to leave the government. Only a traffic light coalition or toleration could still save fischer’s office.
But as a third wheel on the wagon, they did not have much more to order there. A strengthened FDP would dictate the terms. Then even some SPD comrades could get sick of the "schroder dranbleiben" shouts that could be heard on election night. Because an SPD that reforms the economy in conjunction with the FDP will become even more alienated from the unions and parts of their base. Only the left party could profit from this. The unpopular alliance with a weakened union would probably be the lesser evil for the social democrats. Perhaps the ominous list of cuts from the ministry of finance could become a joint government bill. The SPD has tried to play them down, not really fighting the union, but only complaining about a lack of honesty, because the SPD is then planning exactly what it denounces in the union.
The poker for power in germany really just started on election night and could go on for a long time. If the parliament fails to confirm the old chancellor or elect a new one in a few weeks, there will be new elections. After the election is before the election, never could this saying be more relevant than today. It is not excluded that schroder even in this according to the motto "me or the chaos" sees its chance. The whole direction of the SPD on election night became speak for it.
The CDU/CSU parties, on the other hand, which had been rumored to be playing with such ideas in the last week of the election, may have lost interest in them on election night. Because the first question the union must ask itself is whether only a clumsy election strategy of the merkel team is to blame for the disaster. They wanted to make the CDU/CSU a copy of westerwelle’s FDP in the area of economic policy and have thus strengthened the original. The union’s dilemma, however, is that all conceivable alternatives to merkel, from merz to wulff to koch, are pushing the party’s neoliberal orientation just as merkel did. Who wants to stand for election again in a few weeks??
